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Ohio '05 Election Results Staggeringly Impossible

based on a report by Brad Friedman. November 15, 2005

On Issue 1, the Columbus Dispatch's pre-election polling, described as "uncannily accurate for decades", called the race correctly within 1% of the final result.

POLL: 53% Yes, 27% No, 20% Undecided
RESULT: 54% Yes, 45% No

But then came Issues 2 through 5, put forward by ReformOhioNow.org -- a bi-partisan coalition pushing for Electoral Reform in the Buckeye State. On those four issues, the final results were impossibly different!

Issue 2 (Allow easier absentee balloting)
POLL: 59% Yes, 33% No, 9% Undecided
RESULT: 36% Yes, 63% No

Issue 3 (Revise campaign contribution limits)
POLL: 61% Yes, 25% No, 14% Undecided
RESULT: 33% Yes, 66% No

Issue 4 (Independent Commission to draw Congressional Districts)
POLL: 31% Yes, 45% No, 25% Undecided
RESULT: 30% Yes, 69% No

Issue 5 (Independent Board to oversee elections)
POLL: 41% Yes, 43% No, 16% Undecided
RESULT: 29% Yes, 70% No

What could possibly explain such differences between the Dispatch's poll and the final results?

You have been reading excerpts from "The Staggeringly Impossible Results of Ohio's '05 Election" by Brad Friedman. You can read the entire piece here: tinyurl.com/buqtp. Thanks to BradBlog.com. We visit often and we hope you will too.

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